The “Emerging Democratic Majority” is on the “Wrong Side of History”

Exit-Polling: 2008, 2012, 2016 General Elections

The following charts collate New York Times exit-polling data from the last three presidential election cycles. For those interested in more information about the reliability and significance of this data, a FAQ is available here. Data from 2010 and 2014 midterm elections is available here.

 

Voting Patterns by Demographic Category

Figure 1 2008 2012 2016
Democrat (Obama) Republican (McCain) Democrat (Obama) Republican (Romney) Democrat (Clinton) Republican (Trump)

RACE

White 43 55 39 59 37 58
Black 95 4 93 6 88 8
Hispanic 67 31 71 27 65 29
Asian 62 35 73 26 65 29
Other 66 31 58 38 56 37

GENDER

Men 49 48 45 52 41 53
Women 56 43 55 44 54 42
AGE
18-29 66 32 60 37 55 37
30-44 52 46 52 45 50 42
45-64 50 49 47 51 44 53
65+ 45 53 44 56 45 53
POLITICAL IDENTITY
Liberal 89 10 86 11 84 10
Moderate 60 39 56 41 52 41
Conservative 20 78 17 82 15 81
Democrat 89 10 92 7 89 9
Republican 9 90 6 93 7 90
Independent 52 44 45 50 42 48
RELIGION
Protestant 45 54 42 57 39 58
Catholic 54 45 50 48 45 52
Other faith 74 22 74 23 62 29
No faith 75 23 70 26 68 26
EDUCATION
No College 52 46 51 47 45 51
Some Col 51 47 49 48 43 52
Col Grad 50 48 47 51 49 45
PostGrad 58 40 55 42 58 37
INCOME
Under 30 65 32 63 35 53 41
30-49.9 55 43 57 42 51 42
50-99 49 49 46 52 46 50
100-199 48 51 44 54 47 48
200+ 52 46 44 54 48 49

Share of the Electorate by Demographic Category

Figure 2

2008

2012

2016

RACE

White 74 72 70
Black 13 13 12
Hispanic 9 10 11
Asian 2 3 4
Other 2 2 3

GENDER

Men 47 47 48
Women 53 53 52

AGE

18-29 18 19 19
30-44 29 27 25
45-64 37 38 40
65+ 16 16 15

POLITICAL IDENTITY

Liberal 22 25 26
Moderate 44 41 39
Conservative 34 35 35
Democrat 39 38 37
Republican 32 32 33
Independent 29 29 31

RELIGION

Protestant 54 53 52
Catholic 27 25 23
Other faith 6 7 8
No faith 12 12 15

EDUCATION

No College 24 24 18
Some Col 31 29 32
Col Grad 28 29 32
PostGrad 17 18 18

INCOME

Under 30 18 20 17
30-49.9 19 21 19
50-99 36 31 31
100-199 20 21 24

200+

6 7

10

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